As we cross the halfway mark of 2025, a sobering reality confronts Nigeria’s agri-food sector: farm-produce prices are rising at an alarming rate. Between January and May, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 28.98% increase in the farm-produce price index—a surge that is sending ripple effects through food systems, market structures, and rural livelihoods.
But beyond the headline numbers lies a deeper story—one marked by climate disruptions, regional insecurity, and a policy environment struggling to keep pace.
What’s Driving the Price Surge?
1. Climate Extremes and Crop Losses
Nigeria’s wet season has brought with it a destructive mix of excess rainfall and infrastructure gaps. In Mokwa and surrounding areas of Niger State, flooding wiped out over 10,000 hectares of rice fields in May and June. At the same time, water scarcity in northern regions like Sokoto has severely reduced irrigation-dependent crop yields, cutting productivity and deepening food insecurity.
These climate shocks have crippled production just when demand is peaking, driving prices sky-high for staples like maize, rice, tomatoes, and yam.
“If these patterns persist, Nigeria risks repeating 2022’s food inflation spike, which disproportionately hurt the rural poor.” – Mr. Ayooluwa Okediji, Managing Partner at AgroInfoTech Consulting.
2. Insecurity in Food-Producing Regions
Beyond the floods, farmers are facing mounting insecurity across key agrarian states. In places like Benue and Zamfara, armed conflict and banditry have pushed farmers off their lands, disrupted planting calendars, and reduced inter-state produce movement. This has particularly affected middlemen and logistics firms who transport food to urban centers, adding supply chain pressure to already thin margins.
3. Input Cost Inflation and Market Inefficiencies
Fertilizer, feed, herbicides, and even farm labor have become costlier. Despite Federal Government interventions through the National Agricultural Development Fund (NADF)—which received a 30% budget boost this year to ₦125 billion (approx. $85.6 million)—access to subsidized inputs remains inconsistent across many local governments.
Policy Outlook: Where Do We Go From Here?
The Federal Government is now taking steps to recalibrate the agricultural ecosystem:
- Agricultural law reform is underway to strengthen farmer protections and encourage private sector investment.
- The Ministry of Agriculture has signaled interest in scaling up digital agriculture and satellite monitoring for early flood warnings.
- Ongoing negotiations with development partners are focused on expanding climate-smart farming programs in flood-prone LGAs.
Still, there is a pressing need for real-time data, coordinated input delivery, and localized resilience planning to manage these compounding risks.
What Farmers and Agribusinesses Can Do Right Now
At AgroInfoTech Consulting, we believe that crisis periods are also decision points. The right use of data, technology, and risk planning tools can turn disruption into opportunity.
Here’s how stakeholders can respond proactively:
- Analyze mid-year financials to understand cost/profit margins across crops and cycles
- Map risk exposure using localized climate and production data
- Benchmark against peers in your value chain using regional productivity data
- Diversify produce baskets to reduce market dependency on any one crop
- Leverage digital traceability and satellite data for crop monitoring and early warnings
Final Word
Nigeria’s agri-food system is at an inflection point. The shocks of 2025 are real—but so are the opportunities for innovation, resilience, and transformation.
Let’s use the data, engage the policies, and empower the actors who feed the nation.
